As the most prestigious individual award in football, the Ballon d'Or always draws plenty of betting action. With less than month being left until the official ceremony, the bookies already have their favourites. So, let's check them out in more detail and take a closer look at Ballon d'Or odds.
Ballon d'Or preview and odds
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Sadly, the Ballon d'Or awards were cancelled for 2020 due to obvious global disruption. The main favourite to win the 2020 Ballon d'Or was the Polish international Robert Lewandowski and the seasoned striker is the bookies favour the seasoned striker for the 2021 award as well.
A 30-man list was announced at the start of October, but only a few of those names will have a realistic chance to win the award. Here are Ballon d'Or odds for the top three candidates to win:
| Ballon d'Or Winner | Odds | Bookmaker | Bet here |
| Robert Lewandowski | 4/9 (1.44) | Paddy Power | Add to betslip |
| Lionel Messi | 6/4 (2.5) | Unibet | Add to betslip |
| Mohamed Salah | 15/1 (16) | William Hill | Add to betslip |
So, now that we know who are the nominees and who are the main favourites, let's take a detailed look at them and our 2021 Ballon d'Or prediction.
Ballon d’Or rankings, odds, and predictions
Prior to the two major tournaments this summer (Copa America and Euro 2020), the Ballon d’Or rankings looked quite different. However, the list obviously changed a bit after those events and after the new season started. With that in mind, we'll now take a closer look at the Top 5 favourites for the award:
Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich) @ 4/9 (1.44)
Despite a very average Euro 2020 tournament, Lewandowski is still the frontrunner in the Ballon d’or rankings and, considering the odds, already seen as a winner by the bookies. Most betting sites have him listed at odds between 4/11 (1.36) and 4/7 (1.57). This is a bit surprising since the main favourite in the past few months was Lionel Messi, but Lewandowski started the new season in great form while Messi struggled with injury and conditioning.
In any case, Lewandowski scored 48 goals in 40 matches last season and started the new season with 22 goals in 16 games. Given the odds and our personal belief, we Ballon d'Or prediction is for Robert Lewandowski to win the award.
Lionel Messi (PSG) @ 7/4 (2.75)
The second most likely Ballon d'Or winner of them all is Lionel Messi, the six-time winner of this prestigious award. At most betting sites, the odds of Messi winning the trophy for a 7th time go from 11/10 (2.1) to 7/4 (2.75), with the latter being the predominant odds. It is a bit weird that Messi may not win the award in the year when he won his first major trophy with Argentina after lifting the Copa America trophy, but Lewandoski had better stats on an individual level and he won the league with Bayern, which Messi failed to do with Barcelona.
On the other hand, Messi had 38 goals and 14 assists in 52 games for Barca last season and led them to Copa del Rey title. However, Messi also missed the start of the new season in PSG since his conditioning was far from ideal after a difficult summer.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) @ 15/1 (16)
The Egyptian winger has been one of the most consistent players in the world over the past five years, but he was always behind Ronaldo and Messi in the race for the most prestigious individual award. And while Salah has been particularly impressive at the start of the new season in which he already scored 15 goals in 13 games for Liverpool, his lack of trophies in the last season will most likely cost him in the race for his first Ballon d'Or.
Jorginho (Chelsea) @ 20/1 (21)
The sturdy midfielder may be a surprising addition on the list at first glance, but Jorginho won the Champions League with Chelsea last season and he won Euro 2020 with Italy. For those two reasons, Jorginho is among the top five favourites for Ballon d'Or but the bookies vastly disagree on his chances to actually win it since the odds on Jorginho range from 15/1 (16) to 25/1 (26). In any case, his chances are slim at best and we don't expect him to lift the trophy at the end.
Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) @ 33/1 (34)
The French striker had an impressive last season in which he was one of the top goalscorers in La Liga with 23 goals, while he also added 6 goals in Champions League. Benzema started the new season in same vain and he currently has 9 goals and 7 assists for Real Madrid in La Liga. However, his outstanding performances will probably not be enough to get him the award since Benzema failed to win any trophies last season with Real Madrid, although he did win the UEFA Nations League this year with the national team.
Other Favourites for Ballon d'Or and Their Odds
- Kylian Mbappe (PSG) @ 50/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo (Man Utd) @ 50/1
- N'Golo Kante (Chelsea) @ 50/1
- Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) @ 66/1
- Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG) @ 66/1
- Raheem Sterling (Man City) @ 75/1
- Kevin De Bruyne (Man City) @ 80/1
What impacts the Ballon d'Or awards
The Ballon d'Or is the award that is given to the best football player on the planet for the season that has just passed. Of course, this is dependent on many different factors, not just how many times a player hits the back of the net. Historically, this award has regularly gone to prolific goalscorers such as Messi and Ronaldo, but actually, the award isn’t solely given for goals. There are other considerations to also take into consideration, as we’ve identified below.
Team contribution
While football is obviously a team game, there are key individuals that can have a huge impact on the overall success and performances for their teams. This is something that is taken into account for the Ballon d'Or, and it’s something that you should definitely take into account before making your wagers. As a general rule of thumb, it can be a good idea to look for players that would be considered as MVPs for high-profile teams around the world.
Domestic and international form
The great thing about the Ballon d'Or is that it takes into account the performances of an individual during their domestic leagues as well as international competitions. Therefore, it’s important to look for players that have been a part of winning teams, both domestically and internationally. Some key competitions to look out for great individual performances include the Euro Championships, Champions League, and the World Cup.
Individual impact
Although it’s easy to develop a general opinion for an individual's impact, the statistics do not lie. Therefore, you will want proof considering information such as goals scored, clean sheets, number of assists, number of trophies won, and other factors too. These are the easiest areas to look into when trying to predict who will win the Ballon d'Or, and all of this information can be found online.
Best online bookmakers for the Ballon d'Or
The Ballon d'Or is one of the biggest awards in sport, never mind just football. So as you might imagine, this award is covered by all of the major online bookmakers in the UK. However, while most bookmakers will cover this award, you will want to know where to find the one with the best odds. We’ve listed them for you right here.
- Betfair
- Bet365
- Ladbrokes
- William Hill
- Unibet
On top of offering fantastic odds for the Ballon d'Or, all of these betting sites have a top-drawer mobile app you can bet from, as well as having a valid betting licence.
Ballon d'Or winner – FAQs
Are there specific bonuses related to the Ballon d'Or?
Not really – although once you’ve registered with any of our recommended betting sites above, you will have access to a bunch of betting bonuses for a range of football events. All of these bonuses can be found once you’ve logged into your account.
When are these awards due to be held?
Providing that things continue going ahead as planned, the Ballon d'Or awards will be held on 29th of November, 2021.
What must I do to sign up with a betting site?
In order to sign up with a UK online betting site, you are required to be over the age of 18 and be a resident of the UK. Shortly after you have signed up, you will need to provide verification of these details.
last update : September 2024